Boverket: Lower risk of setback, but construction remains at low level

A Low Plateau, Not a Turnaround

Boverket's latest building forecast sketches a housing market that has stopped deteriorating but is not yet recovering. Roughly 32,000 homes are expected to break ground in 2026, split between about 30,000 new builds and 2,000 conversions, with the annual figure drifting up to 34,000–35,000 in the two years after that. In practice, that keeps activity close to 2025 levels.

Why the Pessimism Persists

Two forces continue to hold construction down. Households have more spending power than a year ago, yet they are still worse off than before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and building costs remain elevated without any clear downward trend. The result, according to the September forecast, is stability at a weak level rather than a genuine upswing.

Geopolitical Noise, Limited Damage

What has persuaded Boverket to lower its setback risk is the absence of a serious market reaction to recent global turbulence. Economist Oskar Gramstad points out that conditions have stayed remarkably steady despite the war in Iran, and that the current situation closely mirrors September last year — which supports a building pace similar to 2025.

A Collapse That Has Not Arrived

In Boverket's vocabulary, a setback means construction undershooting the forecast because external shocks push up building costs or squeeze household finances. That scenario has haunted the authority's projections all year, earlier linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Since it has yet to materialize, the odds of a setback in 2026 are now seen as smaller. The forecast itself shows what pace can be expected if market conditions hold steady, giving policymakers a yardstick for whether housing construction is reaching acceptable levels.